A formula for hoarding toilet paper.
[10,000 BC… world population probably about 1 million]
Can we talk about toilet paper? Toilet paper (a.k.a. "bathroom tissue") is, in the scope of the grand sweep of geological time and the very small portion of that which is human history, a micro-blink, a single tick of the clock, a nano-second, a very recent invention. We have come to depend on it. It is made from virgin wood pulp or from recycled paper. Sine qua non. Without which (we are) nothing? Our American times are The Age of Bathroom Tissue, our symbol which defines the nicety of our current civilization. How "convenient", the Convenience Society.
For the purposes of this study TP (hereinafter standing for "toilet paper" and "bathroom tissue" etc.) will be assumed to be in roll form, single ply with 999 perforations per roll to yield 1000 sheets, in aggregate weighing an average of 227 grams (including cardboard core tube just over half a pound) 4.0625 inches by 4.0625 inches per sheet or 10.31875 by 10.31875 centimeters for those with metric bowels. Each individual detachable section weighs about .22 grams. Further it is stipulated that when the average application of TP is undertaken, that a minimum of three perforated sections are detached together as a unit or chain, folded over and back at the perforations to be applied as a three ply frictional cleanser. This is multiplicity of layers is necessitated as a safety precaution due to the thin paper's low resistance to puncture and tearing. Furthermore, two or more successive applications of fold laminated TP may be employed prior to a satisfactory cleansing. Genetics, sexual orientation, diet and food sanitation levels are strong influences of the aggregated number of wipe counts TP demands per episode.
[1 AD…Age of Western Religion begins...world population 170 million]
There is some fear that the 20th Century's existing satisfactory market supply of TP may be threatened by population growth. At present the world numbers of humans are showing a net increase of one million additional inhabitants every 97 hours and 20 minutes, births exceeding deaths by that amount. "A million more..every four (days)!" Like compound interest on an investment of five point nine billion persons, we may expect to strain to keep up with our levels of supply of goods, both luxury and necessary. The Japanese innovation of "Not Quite Just In Time" inventories takes on new and unhappy meaning when the bathroom roll holder is discovered to be empty.
[1492 AD…European Age of Exploration/Exploitation…world population 425 million]
Prior to the invention of TP in America inventive humans used other methods of personal cleansing. Southwestern cowboys who spent long months away from "civilization" did not employ a pack train of mules loaded high with mountains of an expedition's supply of TP. They carried none. Aged survivors of mountain men have offered the information that small smooth stones should be collected from dry stream beds, used once each and then forcefully cast away from the streambed up into the distant puckerbrush, taking care that companions who may be similarly occupied in the surrounding vegetation (if any) will not be injured by the ejectamenta coated projectile. It is noted that single stones with gently water-rounded edges are best, and are much stronger than paper, not easily sundered, impervious to puncture and of course need not be used in multiple plies. Stored in advance in the pocket, they are found to be close to body temperature.
Eskimo corespondents have reported that prior to the intrusion of "civilization" their TP system was to use free-for-the-taking tundra moss when available during the summer months, and handfuls of snow during the balance of the year. Nevertheless people of the Far North are noted for their unfailing sense of good humor.
[1857 AD…Petroleum Age begins…world population 1.2 billion same as China today, "every fourth child born is Chinese" and I wonder if Chinese fathers aren't the least bit suspicious when the first three are born?]
Farming, once practiced by 75 percent of the U. S. population, by now (1997) undertaken by only two percent of our citizens. Once ruralists were dependent upon the core center cobs from shelled ears of corn (maize) as an effective TP, but in the early 1900's began to drift toward paper products in the form of last year's mail order catalogue, particularly those distributed free by the Sears & Roebuck or Montgomery Ward companies. But in time these firms began to respond to Madison Avenue's effete ad "experts" and switched to printing on less utilitarian glossy paper which skids rather than scours. Seeing an opportunity, an entirely new industry sprang up to fill the gap, furnishing convenient rolled TP quickly substituting for the conspicuously consumptive super-sophisticated mail order industry. Recycling, once the American Way, had lost ground to a wastrel mentality, but a new industry commenced which followed the sound business principle of "Find a need…and fill it!"
In other parts of the world a public toilet facility may provide a single wet cloth, used in turn by all of the "customers". Europe, on the other hand, abounds with bidets, marvelous mystical fountains, in some cases of warmed water. In other societies one uses the right hand for feeding, the left for wiping. We are not told what the wiping media may be. Handfuls of sand? Desert plants without spines? Goat skins? A camel's tail?
Animals often use the tongue in lieu of TP, but humans do not seem to have either the inclination nor the dexterity for that approach. Other large animals have formed symbiotic relationships with lesser creatures, such as the dung beetle and the scavenging birds with the rhinoceros, or the Cattle Egret.
[1950AD…The Detroit Age…world population 2.4 billion]
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has published technical memoranda 102799 and 103888, Generation rates and chemical composition of waste streams in a typical crewed space habitat, and, Waste streams in a typical crewed space habitat; an update. They report on scientific studies of humans in isolation orbiting the planet and moon, but may be interpolated to cover earthbound activities, measures and performance. These publications contain more data than the average person would find interesting, but they are useful in bringing home the concept that all humans living on the finite earth are actually astronauts riding an 8000 mile diameter rock, protected by a multi-purpose gravity attached atmospheric shield. Thus we need only multiply these NASA data times 5.936 billion to get some idea of the market forces which may affect the supply and sale of TP.
71.48 frugal people sharing a roll of TP will exhaust a roll every day. (5,936,279,395 humans [in early November 1997]) calling for a daily TP production by the industry of 83,048,116 rolls, with no days off and no vacations….we cannot afford to slip behind. By 2000AD our production of TP for world markets could reach 100,000,000 rolls per day.
The author, at age 70, has minimal demands and feels that 61.276 rolls should be an adequate supply for the balance of his lifetime (barring unexpected gastro-intestinal malfunctions in his declining years, or nursing home dieticians).
The adult astronaut is responsible for the generation of 28.11 KG of waste daily (62 pounds!), solid, liquid and gaseous, [counting the weight of carbon dioxide exhaled as part of the measure]. On earth or aloft in orbit, this is an amount almost equal to one third of the Astronauts weight cast off each day. Among individuals waste generated varies, but not necessarily every day with regularity. Stresses during liftoff, both physical and psychological, may involuntarily accelerate frequency which later in orbit will average out. Earth people, not subject to the lift-off stresses, may nonetheless undergo periods of atypical voiding which may be induced by heartless bureaucrats, bankers, teenage children, carjackers, insurance salesmen, close relatives and other predators. Given the large numbers of providers, human waste generated on a world wide basis can be considered to be statistically constant. The earth, as the perfect amoral recycler, does not weigh anymore at sunset than at dawn (discounting satellite launches and meteor arrivals).
Male earth astronauts can minimize TP consumption. They may flippantly use centrifugal forces though flailing in a short 120 degree arc after micturition which obviates the need for post-urinary TP. But since slightly more than half of the terrestrial population is female this technique in not available to them and daily multiple voiding of urine must be factored into any estimates of annual TP consumption. Experiments with violent pelvic agitation by means of hulahoops by females in search for equality with males have not been fruitful. One feminine experimenter wistfully remarked that the male equipment was "certainly a handy thing to take on a picnic!".
[1997AD…world population 5.9 billion]
Male astronauts have been recorded as producing up to 6.8 grams of semen/day, but on a probable three day (among the younger ones) discharge cycle. If the mostly recreational semen is discharged into an "ejacularium" provided on loan or short term hire by a female earth astronaut, the male may have little or no need for the absorbent use of TP. On the other hand, the female astronaut may require from two to six sheets of TP to staunch semen surplus drainage. (The male astronaut produces more than 1000 sperm cells per second, which accumulates in excess of 86,400,000 cells per day, or a three day grand total of a little over a quarter billion flagellating cells. Since only one cell is required for fertilization of an egg, the balance is scrapped. (Similarly the male salmon in an attempt to fertilize a relatively few eggs may succeed in spermaticizing the entire streambed from headwaters to the sea.) TP way be employed as a socially acceptable absorbent to dispose of the surplus semen . In simulation during laboratory tests substituting a faux ejaculate in the form of a half teaspoon of creamy Italian dressing for 20.4 grams of semen it has been concluded that 4.7 sheets of TP are, in most cases for reasonably active vertically standing women, a sufficiency for absorption which would allow them to return to mobility after a dalliance in the "fornicatorium". Condoms may be employed for sport sex and serve as a reservoir, helpful in reducing this demand. Intimate installation assistance for condoms can be gratifying to the wearer for the sense of cooperation and camaraderie it provides. Some have claimed after donning the device that "installation was half of the fun!".
The manufacture of TP is energy intensive, chain saws, skidders, logging trucks, mills, electric motors for giant papermaking machines so large they would scarcely fit into a football stadium, long haul truckers, energy demands to support retail outlets etc.. One would hope that the supply of fossil fuels would continue forever at present levels with gradual increases to match population swelling. Fat chance! Advisories detected on the Internet regarding fossil fuel supplies suggest that most of the cheap and easy oil has already been found and expended, and somewhere close to "all the oil there ever was, or will be", is now half consumed during only its first 140 years of popularity. We are just now getting really good at using it up. One should not automatically assume that we therefore can expect another 140 years of happy motoring and home heating until the supply is totally exhausted. TP is petroleum dependent, for its harvesting, manufacture, shipping and marketing. It must compete with the snowmobile, jetski, TransAm, hot air balloons, plastics, truck tires, charcoal lighter, etc. for the fuels available The individual should be the judge of when to prepare the family for a permanent TP shortage.
An oil man was first to warn of the finite oil supply, an oil geologist named M. King Hubbert, who accurately predicted the production peak for United States oil supplies. For a full story on the forthcoming dilemma the information may be located by pointing computer search engines at HUBBERT PEAK or clicking on (http://www.ecotopia.com/hubbert/index.html) . Current information is also available by searching for the work of PETROCONSULTANTS. As an example of the finite limits to oil supplies, it may come as a surprise to some that the recently discovered North Slope oil field resources have provided production for the Alaska Pipeline and peaked in 1988, declining since.
A small amount of time might be gained by reducing competitive means of petroleum consumption. A good first step might be to close all secondary school and college parking lots, demanding that teachers and pupils alike ride the no-cost mass transit system provided from the tax base in the form of the School Bus. No one under the age of 40 should be allowed to operate any sort of petroleum powered vehicle. Bicycling should be mandated in all but the worst weather.
However, our Congress, long known to be available for lease, is not likely to empower gasoline conservation. The best they have been able to do so far is to continue steps toward a viable death rate by accepting money from Tobacco Interests, thus providing for 400,000 premature deaths annually through beneficent lung disease, and they are to be applauded for that single isolated positive step. Sadly, most smokers have already bred extensively before they die. A deadly vice which strikes just before puberty would be more effective.
If TP is so oil dependent this calls for some family planning for future needs. Once the family agrees on a Beginning to Hoard TP Decision (which can conceivably happen within the decade) it would be well to work out a formula to estimate in advance the families needs, while at the same time avoiding panic overstocking which could take up several rooms of valuable space in the home. Overstocking on the other hand can be beneficial for barter purposes after the collapse of the national banking system and the replacement of the Dollar with the maximum wage, to be called One Universal SweatHour.
A scientific formula may be derived to arrive at future family requirements. Factors of importance may fit into the TP EQUATION. They are:
A printout of the resulting mathematical forecasting formula is too space consuming to be furnished with this report but may be made available on two floppy disks. A suggestion of the formula is appended to provide an appreciation of the principles of computation. It is reluctantly admitted by the authors of the Formula that as much as half a day may be needed to make entries and that a 486 or higher with 64 megabytes of memory is needed to do the computations, but one should keep in mind that the Formula need only be run once.
For a thumbnail version of the formula (margin of error +\ac_ 4.371%):
(number of days life expectrancy/71.48)= rolls to stockpile/person.
Strangely, by weight we use about 1/5th as much daily salt a TP. Where refrigeration or adequate slaughtering conditions may not be available, salt, a bactericide, can be used to help preserve meats, vegetables and canned goods. Plan on 2000 milligrams of salt per person per day, per year, per expected lifetime. Salt should be kept in a dry place which is secure from the predation of rodents, Margarita drinkers, porcupines and other small animals.
The authors, as examples to all, may stockpile enough TP for all lifetime personal needs by usurping the area of a two car garage and parking vehicles on the street. If gasoline prices skyrocket as one scenario suggests to a cost of $14.99.9 per gallon, do not expect to need the car, utility vehicle or pickup anyway. As the stockpile of TP is slowly exhausted one hopes to use the freed up garage space for stacking firewood. A spouse must search for a similar space for rent elsewhere in the neighborhood or park vehicles on the lawn (if any).
2009AD…world estimated population (toward the end of the year 7 billion +.) Cheap gasoline is gone, available only in very small bottles as a nostalgic fragrance, a drop behind the ear, a drop inside the wrist, behind the knee. Very sexy! Home furnace oil tank now costs $4,124.73 (plus tax) per filling. Banks are reluctant to finance oil purchases unless borrower has fire insurance for the fuel. Abandoned properties in cities cause bank failures due to heavy mortgage investments in urban real estate. The formerly homeless take over Donald Trump's abandoned apartment, laughingly referring to it as a "walkup" since its elevator was electrically powered. Visa and Mastercard closed out. Urbanites emigrate to live among the ruralists with Grampa and Grammy, where up to 100 people need to share a single bedroom.
A certain amount of discontentment follows.
If avoidance is possible, shouldn't we get cracking on the alternatives?
What are they?
(There are 38,740,000 BTUs [British Thermal Units] in a cord [4x4x8 feet = 128 cubic feet] of United States Senators {slightly higher among Southern politicians}.) As there are only two senators per state, lawyers with similar characteristics may be substituted. Look for them nostalgically lurking around the back doors of derelict ambulances.